Experimental Measurement Project
This project attempts to address the ‘empirical gap’ of how to measure the implementation of formal political settlement ‘events’ such as peace agreements, with regards to the broader structural conflict and development outcomes. This project seeks to innovate by beginning conversations between different types of data providers engaged in different ways of ‘measuring’ whether a peace agreement has been implemented and some sort of negative or positive peace acheived.
This project has several different components. First, a brief desk-top study will scope the existing global datasets (such as polity IV and V-Dem and projects such as the Human Security Project and Human Peace Index). Second, this study will feed into working sessions to bring together different types of data providers, and different ‘measurers’ of change across a range of methodologies, focused on different putative dimensions of the political settlement. We aim to then provide several pieces of work: conceptual work linking to our case studies as to what ‘success’ might involve; an indication of how patterns of conflict and development change post a peace agreement using three case studies; and third, an examination of trajectories of conflict and fragility in Africa. We will use both PA-X data on peace agreements and the International Futures (IF’s) forecasting system (University of Denver) as one of the largest aggregated databases globally.
Extensive data projects exist with capacity to provide measurement of different ways in which a peace agreement might have had successful outcomes. We hope that by attempting to provide some ways of ‘measuring’ we will both provoke thought as to what a successful peace process would deliver, and attempt some measurements to see what they tell us.
Julia Schünemann, Jakkie Cilliers, Jonathon Moyer, Steve Hedden, and Amanda Lucey (ISS), Sanja Badanjak, Christine Bell and Toby Kelly, Global Justice Academy, University of Edinburgh.
Key Publications (search for more):
- Schünemann, J., & Lucey, A. (2015). Success and Failure of Political Settlements: Defining and Measuring Transformation (PSRP Working Paper No. 2). Edinburgh: Global Justice Academy, University of Edinburgh.
- Author : Harriet Cornell
- Category : Success and Failure
- Date : July 16, 2015
- Tags : Evidence & Indicators Measurement Success & Failure