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Experimental Measurement Project


This project addresses the ‘empirical gap’ of how to measure the implementation of formal political settlement ‘events’ such as peace agreements, with regards to the broader structural conflict and development outcomes.  It innovates by beginning conversations between different types of data providers, and who are engaged in different ways of ‘measuring’, whether a peace agreement has been implemented and some sort of negative or positive peace achieved.


This project has several different components.  First, a brief desk-top study scopes the existing global datasets (such as polity IV and V-Dem and projects such as the Human Security Project and Human Peace Index). Second, this study feeds into working sessions which bring together different types of data providers, and different ‘measurers’ of change across a range of methodologies, focused on different putative dimensions of the political settlement. It then provides several pieces of work: conceptual work linking to our case studies as to what ‘success’ might involve; an indication of how patterns of conflict and development change post-peace agreement, using three case studies; and third, an examination of trajectories of conflict and fragility in Africa.  We use both PA-X data on peace agreements and the International Futures (IF’s) forecasting system (University of Denver), as one of the largest aggregated databases globally.


Extensive data projects exist with capacity to provide measurement of different ways in which a peace agreement might have had successful outcomes.  We hope that by providing some ways of ‘measuring’, we will both provoke thought as to what a successful peace process would deliver, and attempt some measurements to see what they tell us.


Julia Schünemann, Jakkie Cilliers, Jonathon Moyer, Steve Hedden, and Amanda Lucey (ISS), Sanja Badanjak, Christine Bell and Toby Kelly, Global Justice Academy, University of Edinburgh.

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Photo: Martina Bacigalupo/Vu and Robert Henderson

Details :
  • Author : Harriet Cornell
  • Category : Success and Failure
  • Date : July 16, 2015
  • Tags : Evidence & Indicators Measurement Success & Failure