Data from the PA-X Peace Agreements Database has been featured in a new analysis of ceasefire design and effectiveness.
In a recently published study of effects of ceasefire design on reduction of conflict-related deaths, The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War, Govinda Clayton (ETH Zurich) and Valerie Sticher (Leiden University and ETH Zurich) rely on PA-X data to show the importance of provisions on demobilisation and substantive issues in extending ceasefire duration. The authors classify ceasefires found in PA-X as definitive (containing provisions on substantive issues and demobilization), preliminary (containing some form of compliance mechanism) or as simple cessations of hostilities, and combine with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s georeferenced event data to estimate duration of ceasefire models. The analysis shows that not all ceasefires can be expected to yield similar outcomes, as those that are designed with demobilisation in mind, and which aim to resolve some incompatibility between the warring sides, tend to result in longer periods of reduced conflict.
This is an excellent example of use of PA-X data in quantitative studies with global scope, and an important conceptualisation of ceasefire types. Explore the PA-X Peace Agreements Database for more information.
The original article, published in International Studies Quarterly, can be found here: The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War.